Here’s What’s Happening in Our Market

What’s really going on in the Sacramento real estate market? Find out in today’s market update.

 Want to Buy a Home? Search All Homes
Want to Sell a Home? Get a Home Value Report

We’ve heard that since the summer, the market has been slowing down and undergoing certain changes. Well, I’ve done some research, and I want to show you what’s actually happening. I recently pulled the homes listed in the $300,000 to $700,000 range for four different counties, looking at the year-over-year data for the period between July-September of 2017 and July-September of 2018. In that period, I saw that the number of homes for sale is up by 23.6%. The number of homes that sold year over year, though, has dropped 5.6%. If you listen to the pundits and doomsayers, the market numbers are changing and there are more homes sitting on the market. But now let’s look at those same trends over the last seven to eight years (consult with the chart displayed in the video above at the 1:05 mark): Comparing it to last year’s figures, the number of homes for sale is up 19% and the number of homes sold is down only 2%. We have a significantly higher number of homes on the market now than last year—about 30%, in fact. This is not affecting how fast homes are selling, and neither is it affecting home prices in a negative way; those prices are still growing.

“

Overall, the homes that are selling are still selling fast.

”

There are a lot of homes that aren’t selling on the market, and many more listings are expiring now than in the past. To calculate the months of inventory—the amount of time it would take for all current MLS listings to sell, given that no new listings come on the market—we divide the total number of homes for sale by the total number of homes that have actually sold. This is usually done on a monthly basis. This figure takes into account the 18% of homes that don’t sell. We do tend to see more expired listings when the market values increase than when the market goes down, and that’s normal. So overall, the homes that are selling are still selling fast. The homes that are not selling are skewing our inventory numbers. Everyone is focused on the increasing inventory, but I think that we need to be focusing less on how many extra homes are on the market and more on what they’re selling for and how quickly they’re selling. If you have any further questions about this topic, go ahead and reach out to me by phone or email. I look forward to hearing from you.

Finding Out What’s Really Happening in Our Market

It seems like no matter where you get your real estate news, the information is always different. This is because real estate is highly localized, but a lot of the news you hear is national.

 Want to Buy a Home? Search All Homes
Want to Sell a Home? Get a Home Value Report

I’m always talking to people about real estate and many of them often have questions based on what they hear in the news. To really know what’s going on, you need to understand how real estate information is gathered. It seems like no matter where you get your information, it’s always different. In many ways, real estate market reporting is nothing but white noise. Real estate is highly localized, but a lot of times the news you hear is national, and there’s a lot of variance between your local market and the national market. When the national numbers get mixed with the local numbers, it does nothing but confuse people. One of the biggest problems is the databases doing all the reporting (Zillow, The Census Bureau, etc.) are all different. It’d be one thing if every time you heard a snippet or saw a headline, it was based on the same data set, but it’s not. It’s almost like real estate’s version of “fake news”—the snippet or the headline only tells you part of the story so that you click on it. For example, I recently saw a headline claiming that the Bay Area was one of the top markets in terms of appreciation because prices rose 18%. As I read into that article, though, I learned that they were referring to the average list price, not the average sale price.
 

“

It’d be one thing if every time you heard a
snippet or saw a headline, it was based on
the same data set, but it’s not.

”

 

At 4:43 in the video above, you can see some statistics from a July national housing market report. They indicate that there’s more inventory and the volume of sales has gone down compared to the previous month. However, the same article these statistics come from also shows that the median price of existing home sales has been trending in the same direction for the past four years, so the fact that there's more inventory and fewer sales isn't anything out of the usual. This is not to say that markets don’t change, but they change locally based on local influences. If interest rates go up, obviously that’s going to affect more than just your zip code, but there are many more factors that influence home values. As always, if you have any other questions about this or any other real estate topic or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in our market, please feel free to reach out to me. I’d love to help you.

What’s Really Going On in the Sacramento Market?

What is really going on in the Sacramento area market? Here’s what you need to know.

 Want to Buy a Home? Search All Homes
Want to Sell a Home? Get a Home Value Report

Today I wanted to give you a quick look at what’s really going on in the Sacramento area market. In the last three years, we’ve seen that inventory keeps going down as more homes are selling. It seems like everyone feels that the market is overdone, that things are slowing down, and that prices are about to drop. I’m here to tell you that I just don’t see that happening. In the last two months, about 4,500 homes have sold. What’s really happening with the market is that we’re still looking at lower inventory and an increase in demand. That tells us that nothing has really changed.

 

“

Markets can and do change, but they don’t

all change at the same time.

”

 
Of the homes I’ve sold in the last two months, the homes that were smaller than 1,120 square feet were selling in 17 days on average, and those over 2,900 square feet sold in an average of 34 days.

Home prices are going up, but they’re doing so slowly. If we look at the total inventory of homes for sale over the last three years, levels have dropped about 20%, but at the same time, homes that have actually sold have gone up 6.7%.

Markets can and do change, but they don’t all change at the same time. Even neighborhoods and school districts change at different rates and in different ways. If you want to know what’s going on in your neighborhood, please reach out to me. I’d be glad to have a discussion with you.

Are We Overdue for a Market Peak?

Are we overdue for a market peak? No, and I have the numbers to prove why.

 Want to Buy a Home? Search All Homes
Want to Sell a Home? Get a Home Value Report

Are we overdue for a market peak? This is the question I will answer in our latest market review.

Here are the timestamped sections of my analysis so you can skip ahead in the video above to the sections you feel are most relevant to your situation:

• (0:55) The timeline of real estate cycles and why history won’t repeat itself this time in our market.(2:00) Some concern among younger home buyers regarding the state of our market.
• (3:05) A snapshot of the Sacramento metro/four-county area median home prices from January 2005 to October 2017.
• (3:18) The issue of population growth versus the number of new homes being built and how this will influence our market in the coming years.
• (7:47) The growth of Sacramento’s civilian labor force from 2002 to 2018 and how it compares to our population growth.
• (8:17) The annual number of homes sold in our market from 2003 to 2018.
• (9:22) The year experts predict we actually will hit our market peak.
• (9:50) Wrapping things up.

“

The numbers say we're not near a market peak.

”

As always, if you have any questions about our market or you are thinking of buying or selling a home soon, please reach out to me. I look forward to speaking with you soon.

What’s the Latest News From Our Market?

A lack of sellers and a lack of new construction means inventory is low in our market.

Want to sell your home? Get a FREE home value report

Want to buy a home? Search all homes for sale

What’s been happening lately in our Sacramento market?

As you may recall, in my last video I discussed all the reasons we weren’t in a bubble. I cited in particular a lack of new construction and a lack of sellers.

Right now, we’re still just barely back to peak home prices, and some areas are still not back to peak prices. Over time, we’ve needed about 10,000 to 12,000 new homes a year to keep up with population growth, and since the 1970s, new home construction has never been very constant—it’s either been boom or bust. Our “boom” years had as many as 20,000 new homes, and our “bust” years had as few as 5,000. During our last “bust” year, we were down to 2,500 new homes, and we’re still  currently not back above 10,000 units.

The fact is, unless something weird happens, prices cannot be in a bubble. We’ve had year after year of an average days on market of less than 30 days and an average of less than two months for unsold inventory.

"A surplus of new homes isn’t going to pop up overnight."

The average days on market is the amount of time it takes for a home to go into escrow after the moment it gets listed, but that doesn’t take into consideration the homes that don’t sell. If homes don’t go into escrow, they don’t get included in the average days on market. What does get added into the equation is the unsold inventory, which is what the average months of inventory is—the unsold inventory that’s carried over month after month.

Basically, there aren’t enough places to live. Like I said, unless something weird happens, a surplus of new homes isn’t going to pop up overnight.

In other news, interest rates are going up. Prices might not appreciate as fast as they have been, but every neighborhood is different, and you can’t always tell exactly what’s going on just by looking at the numbers.

If you’re curious what your home is worth or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, feel free to call or email me. I’d love to talk to you.

What Does Our Level of Inventory Say About Our Market?

A lack of sellers and a lack of new construction means inventory is low in our market.

Want to sell your Home? Get a FREE home value report.

Want to buy a Home? Search all homes for sale.

What’s been happening lately in our Sacramento market?

As you may recall, in my last video I discussed all the reasons we weren’t in a bubble. In particular, I cited a lack of new construction and a lack of sellers.

Right now, we’re still just barely back to peak home prices, and some areas are still not back to peak prices. Over time, we’ve needed about 10,000 to 12,000 new homes a year to keep up with population growth, and since the 1970s, new home construction has never been very constant—it’s either been boom or bust. Our “boom” years had as many as 20,000 new homes, and our “bust” years had as few as 5,000. During our last “bust” year, we were down to 2,500 new homes, and we’re still  currently not back above 10,000 units

The fact is, unless something weird happens, prices cannot be in a bubble. We’ve had year after year of an average days on market of fewer than 30 days and an average of fewer than two months for unsold inventory.

The average days on market is the amount of time it takes for a home to go into escrow after the moment it gets listed, but that doesn’t take into consideration the homes that don’t sell. If homes don’t go into escrow, they don’t get included in the average days on market. What does get added to the equation is the unsold inventory, which is what the average months of inventory is—the unsold inventory that’s carried over month after month.

A surplus of new homes isn’t going to pop up overnight.

Basically, there aren’t enough places to live. Like I said, unless something weird happens, a surplus of new homes isn’t going to pop up overnight.

In other news, interest rates are going up. Prices might not appreciate as fast as they have been, but every neighborhood is different, and you can’t always tell exactly what’s going on just by looking at the numbers.

If you’re curious what your home is worth or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, feel free to call or email me. I’d love to talk to you.

Is It a Bubble or a Big Bell

After 6 years of rising prices and demand, is this market on thin ice? Do you wonder if we're headed for another bubble? We've seen year after year of decreasing number of homes for sale while demand and prices increase! Here’s what you should expect in 2018.

Want to sell your Home? Get a FREE home value report.

Want to buy a Home? Search all homes for sale.

I get asked the same question all the time: “What’s going on with the market right now?” "Why are prices still going up?" and "why are there still no houses for sale?". They are valid questions! After several years of a strong upward market, many people are getting nervous that a bubble is about to burst.

There are many reasons why this is not a bubble. I'll explain that what we're experiencing is not like any other 7 - 10 year cycle of the past 60 or 70 years. There are just too many fundamentals powering this steadily rising market.

Over my next few videos, I’ll be offering even more numbers and information that prove that we’re not heading for a bubble in this market. For right now, rent remains high,and getting higher, interest rates remain low, great homes in good neighborhoods that are priced right sell in less than a week... and I don’t envision any big change coming anytime soon.

For my full breakdown of the market, watch the video above. If you have any other questions, comments, or of you just want say hi- please give me a call, text or send me an email. 916-316-3810 or forth@thehoytgroup.com

I look forward to hearing from you!

Your Sacramento February 2017 Market Update

I’m back with your February 2017 edition of the Sacrament Area Market Minute to give you a look at what’s happening with real estate.

  

Want to sell your Sacramento Home? Get a FREE home value report.

Want to buy a Sacramento Home? Search all homes for sale. 

Today I’m bringing you the latest real estate news with the Sacramento Area Market Minute. I’ll go over some national news and let you know what’s going on in our local market as well. 

Let’s start with some national news. Both home values and mortgage rates are on the rise. All of the sources I checked out predicted a 3.6% to 5.3% increase in home values over the next 12 months. It’s also unanimously predicted that interest rates will rise during 2017, ending the year between 4.3% to 4.8%. 

What does this news mean for homebuyers? 

Hurry. If the projections hold true, waiting will not only mean a higher price on homes, but also higher interest rates on your mortgage. In some cases, it could mean paying up to $261 more a month for the same exact house if you wait until the end of the year to buy a new home. 

Although we can all agree that national averages and trends are important when looking at the market, the local markets do most of the influencing. 

Home values are far more driven by local supply and demand, and supply and demand are influenced by local economic strength. That said, let’s move on to some local market news. 

It’s unanimously predicted that interest rates and home values are going to rise in 2017.

Sacramento real estate prices are forecasted to be in the fourth fastest appreciating market in the United States. The number of pending sales, or the number of sellers that have accepted offers from buyers, was up 16.4% month over month and up 5.6% from last year. However, that number is 32.5% lower than it was five years ago.

The number of days on the market has gone up just a little from 45 to 47 this past month, but it’s down from 51 at this time last year. The big statistic here is that the average days on market is down 48.9% from five years ago.

This means if you’re even thinking about putting your house on the market, get it done! We need inventory. Over the past few years, there has never been a time when a seller had this kind of leverage in the market. However, buyers can still be successful in this market. On average, the first offer we submit for your buyers is accepted. 

 If you’re looking to take advantage of this market, either as a buyer or a seller, please feel free to give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you!

Getting Behind the Numbers in Real Estate

Today I wanted to stop by to talk about how the blend in the market is affecting inventory, values, and the perceptions of values. The overall inventory numbers really haven't changed much over the last several years, but the numbers within the numbers have changed. I wanted to explain what that does to values and the perception of values.

I wanted to show you how different neighborhoods, different price ranges, and different types of properties all matter. We hear that median prices have gone up 12.8% in the last 12 months. You read a lot of headlines about prices going up, but what does that mean? Well, it depends. If you bought a house in the last five years in a specific zip code or price range, there are probably some things that you want to know about.

It's best to understand these things early in the planning stage. In some neighborhoods, prices have held steady while some have actually risen quite a bit. For buyers, we do reports on price ranges and what price ranges are doing as far as competition and what you're going to be able to expect when you get out there in the market. For sellers, we do these kinds of reports based on square footage, as well as the size, age, and the type of the property.

“

These reports help you know what 
you can really expect.

”

It's a good way to get started so you know what to expect. We can build these reports for your neighborhood and price range. For buyers, we can also put together these reports to help you know what to expect in certain areas and for certain types of properties.

If you'd like a custom report or you have any questions about the Sacramento real estate market, give me a call or send me an email. I would be happy to help you!

Why Is It a Great Time to Be in the Market?

There are many great area homes for sale.Click here to perform a full home search, or if you're thinking of selling your home, click here for a FREE Home Price Evaluation so you know what buyers will pay for your home in today's market. You may also call me at (916) 248-7777 for a FREE home buying or selling consultation to answer any of your real estate questions.

What’s happening with the market right now? Everything in the Sacramento real estate market is in just the perfect place for both buyers and sellers.

As a seller, you’re excited about what the market has done and what you’ll be able to net from your home sale, because it’s a phenomenal time to sell. It’s also a phenomenal time to buy in regards to interest rates.

It’s just a great time to be in the market, on either side. If you’ve been thinking about taking advantage of this market as a buyer or as a seller, reach out to me soon. Let’s talk today!

Sacramento Real Estate Market Update for Fall 2014

There are many great Folsom and Sacramento area homes for sale. Click here to perform a full home search, or if you're thinking of selling your home, click here for a FREE Home Price Evaluation so you know what buyers will pay for your home in today's market. You may also call me at (916) 248-7777 for a FREE home buying or selling consultation to answer any of your real estate questions.

Sacramento Real Estate Market Update for Fall 2014

Thanks for joining us again. We are here today with Evangeline Scott, of Partners Mortgage to give you the latest market update for the Sacramento Metro area. This is the time of year that we are always looking forward to what next year will bring. However, this year we are seeing some surprising trends take hold, in both the lending and real estate worlds, that we are excited to share with you. 

One of the biggest surprises right now in the financial world is interest rates on mortgages. Most people thought, based on where we were last year, that interest rates would be higher than they are right now. We are still seeing historic lows for interest rates, near 4%. We are even seeing rates in the high 3%'s for 30-yr fixed mortgages. We are seeing a shift in the market and are recommending that people, instead of checking out now, take advantage of these interest rates while there is still activity in the market. 

Another important happening in the mortgage market is the fact that Fannie Mae recently adjusted the amount of time a person has to wait to purchase a new home after a short sale. It used to be 2 years, but now the minimum is 4 years. 

As far as real estate goes, typically at this time of year we see less buyers and less sellers out there. This year, however, we are seeing a ton of sellers in our market. There are fewer buyers as well, so with less competition and increased inventory, buyers can get great deals right now.  Everywhere you look, there are more homes being put on the market. It's an awesome time to be buying.

Sacramento Real Estate Market Update Summer 2014

There are many great Folsom and Sacramento area homes for sale. Click here to perform a full home search, or if you're thinking of selling your home, click here for a FREE Home Price Evaluation so you know what buyers will pay for your home in today's market. You may also call me at (916) 248-7777 for a FREE home buying or selling consultation to answer any of your real estate questions.

Sacramento Real Estate Market Update Summer 2014

  The Sacramento real estate market is both diverse and complex. It's hard for one person to stay on top of everything happening, so I have brought Evangeline Scott from Big Valley Mortgage to help explain some of the goings on in the Sacramento real estate market.

•  From an interest rate perspective, the market has pretty much remained the same. Generally for homeowners, we are looking at interest rates in the low 4%'s! 
• Qualified mortgage is in full effect. A qualified mortgage is a type of loan that has certain, more stable features that make it more likely for you to afford the loan. To qualify for this type of mortgage, a lender first needs to determine that you have the means to repay the mortgage before you take it out.
• According to Evangeline, things in the market have tightened significantly. There are a lot of home buyers in Sacramento, especially first time home buyers who are looking for down payment assistance programs.  There are programs for all those who need it, not just first-time home buyers. Plans that cover your entire down payment on an FHA loan. 
• Refinances have spiked significantly in the last few months. Appreciation values on homes have gone up  to where homeowners are comfortable refinancing on their homes.
• These low interest rates and appreciation values won't last forever, however. If you were thinking of waiting a few years to buy your next home, that may not be such a good idea.  In the next three years, both myself and Evangeline agree that interest rates are going to increase dramatically. If you buy now, we guarantee that you won't pay as high a price or interest rate as you will if you wait 3 years. 

Making a good long term decision on your home is important, and we would love to help you. If you have any questions at all about the housing market or refinancing your home, please give myself or Evangeline a call so that we can take care of all the work for you.

Here is my Enlightening Folsom Real Estate Forecast for 2014

There are many great Folsom and Sacramento area homes for sale. Click here to perform a full home search, or if you're thinking of selling your home, click here for a FREE Home Price Evaluation so you know what buyers will pay for your home in today's market. You may also call me at (916) 248-7777 for a FREE home buying or selling consultation to answer any of your real estate questions.

Hello again, and welcome back to my video blog. I wanted to take a moment to update you on our market here in Folsom and I'll also be making a few predictions as to what we can expect to happen to it.

What are the Current Trends in the Folsom Area

• Currently, inventory is on the rise. This means that competition is going to get stronger and we will likely see homes staying on the market longer. With such an array of homes to choose from, buyers simply need more time to decide.

• In my estimation, these trends will continue in 2014. The market will remain competitive, and interest rates will remain at historic lows.

• The market will cater to both buyers and sellers. Expect multiple offers on homes of exceptional value, which will lead to other properties being overlooked and left on the market longer.

• However, as much as people would like to buy, an uncertain economy may keep some from purchasing.

• The good news is that here in Folsom we have as many jobs as we have homes, which is quite a rare phenomenon. Not many locales around here are as insulated from the national economy, so that is something we can look forward to.

If you ever need any help purchasing a home, I'm very easy to get hold of. You can call me at (916) 316-3810 or email me at forth@thehoytgroup.com